I was never particularly happy with my previous piece on the Shahad drone. So as something of a sequel to that article, I decided to go back and dig into the history and detail of this weapon that Russia wields so extensively and seems destined to continue deploying well into the future… A Long History The first thing I found out when I started to delve back into the development of the Shahed drone was that it wasn’t a unique Iranian construct. I found to my surprise that the Shahed drone seems to have been originally based on, or at least partly based on, the Dornier DAR drone, that was under development in the 1990’s and eventually cancelled in 1994.
This was an anti-radar drone, designed for what are called SEAD operations (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences). When you look at the construction and power plant, the appearance is identical; the Dornier DAR is a Shahed in all but function. There is also the Israel IAI Harpy, another similarly shaped drone that has been operating as part of Israeli defence forces for decades. Additionally, in 2011 an American RQ-170 Sentinel was brought down over the Iranian border and captured by Iran. It is entirely possible that the technology from this drone was used to assist in Iran’s own drone development program. As Shahed clones are deployed both by Ukraine and now America, it feels with this new information, as if the weapons development has come full circle. The Shahed is its own weapons loop, as its capabilities are both equalled, if not exceeded, by copies… The Deal With The Devil Russia needed help in 2022, as its invasion of Ukraine was not going well. So it reached out to its allies. In particular, China, North Korea and Iran. To each, deals were made. Technology to North Korea was traded for men and material, in particular artillery shells and later in 2024, men to help defend Kursk. China got lucrative fossil fuel deals for under-the-table resources, such as dual-use microchips and other ‘non-military’ aid. China was then able to maintain the façade of not actively supporting Putin’s war; calling for peace whilst profiting from the war. Iran at that time, not yet under serious attack from the US and Israel, provided missiles and drones. Not specifically reconnaissance drones or the latest first-person attack drones, but instead, one-way kamikaze drones called ‘Shaheds’. Specifically the Shahed 131 and 136. These weapons were not new. They had been operational with the Iranian military since 2019, but it took their introduction to the Ukrainian conflict in late 2022 to bring them to wider public attention. These new weapons were tested on Kyiv, aimed at civilians, not military targets. So began Russia’s drone-based terror attacks, that continue to this day... The Bear’s Menace Thousands of Shahed drones were purchased from Iran, along with a license to manufacture them. As the Iranian drones were used up relatively quickly, Russia started to spin up its wartime economy. Shahed drone manufacture, over the next few years, was increased to a considerable extent. Built in Russia, these domestically produced Shahed drones were designated as Geran-1 and Geran-2; they were identical in manufacture and function to the original Shahed drones, at least initially. These drones were not primarily used as battlefield weapons. Instead, they were aimed at civilian sites, locations that were easy to navigate to and not hardened against attack. Soon a standard tactic became to launch Shahed drones and time the attacks to coincide with strikes from ballistic and cruise missiles. The Russian Air Force soon became adept at timing their attacks and looking for gaps in Ukrainian air force defences to launch their strikes. Ukraine adapted. In the short term it formed mobile fire support groups who would deploy to fire on low-flying Shaheds whilst more expensive air defence systems concentrated on the missile threat. In the long term, Ukraine pressured allies to provide more air defence systems and Ukraine started to invest in ‘interceptor drones’ to specifically make taking out Shaheds a priority. Ukraine wasn’t the only one adapting, however... An Evolutionary Nightmare Typically, Ukraine has used innovation, technical know-how and a ‘democratic’ response to Russian threats. There are hundreds of organisations and individuals providing equipment and technology to Ukrainian armed forces. FPV drones are built in people’s kitchens. Various tech start-ups are providing drones and other equipment. There are truly huge numbers of different kinds of drones that have different advantages and disadvantages. This means adaptation and innovation are constant amongst the many individuals and groups fighting for the common good. No one technology or company suddenly has a decisive advantage, and even the big companies must be constantly on their toes. Russia plays things differently. Its adaptation is often driven on one platform. LANCET loitering munitions, for example, have been constantly refined and updated over the years to cope with Ukrainian countermeasures. The same with the Shahed. Russia now deploys a number of Shahed variants. For some it’s as simple as an alternative payload. Shahed drones have been observed with Thermobaric warheads, deadly in urban areas, as well as cluster munitions. Still others have been observed with anti-aircraft missiles (or at least what looks like AA missiles), designed to combat the very craft sent to destroy them, such as helicopters and fighter jets. Then there are the decoy drones called ‘Gerbana’ intended to draw expensive interceptor fire. These are the same drones that made it as far as Poland, having apparently been equipped with more extensive fuel tanks. These adaptations however, were inefficient and often incomplete. Ukraine was soon downing Shaheds in considerable numbers via the upgraded production of interceptor drones and improved tactics… Hunter Becomes Hunted The increasing deployment of purpose-built interceptor drones had turned the tide somewhat against Shahed drones. Today, Ukraine confidently shoots down the majority of traditional Shahed drones using a vast array of different technologies and tactics. Everything from helicopters coming alongside drones and shooting them down, to aircraft launching interceptor drones directly from their wings. But Russia is adapting too. Mobile fire teams must now be careful themselves. Direct attacks on the fire teams themselves have been reported. And the Shahed itself is still a very dangerous weapon. The implementation of Mesh networks for example, presents a new way of not only directing Shahed’s but making them less susceptible to Electronic Warfare and improving their range. New tactics have changed the way it’s employed as well. As Ukrainian deep strikes hammer Russia’s supply of fuel, Russia has responded by directing Shahed drones against Ukrainian petrol stations.
The latest Shahed Drone is now jet-powered, known as the ‘Geran 5’. Born out of experimentation on the previous jet variant Shahed 238 ‘Geran-3’, the latest Shahed is faster, harder to intercept and growing in numbers. Additionally, the latest information suggests that some of these new Shahed drones come equipped with electronic warfare. It is still an ongoing adaptation battle, with Ukraine deploying new interceptors to go after the faster jet powered Shahed’s. Russia has responded via the user of constant small waves of drones. Each side is seeking to counter the other. The Shahed, that deadly evil harbinger, will feature in Russian tactics for a long while yet… Additional sources
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