Disruption 2026 | Edit ShortsCars

By Gary S. Vasilash

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate of unemployment is 4.1%, or some 7 million people.

If you’ve ever lost a job you know that it is a horrible thing (unless it was a horrible job, and even then, unless you have another you can slide into, it is still a bad thing because looking for work is often more drudge than the job itself).

The AlixPartners 2026 Disruption Index, which is based on surveys of 3,200 senior executives in 11 countries working in 10 different industries, including automotive, has an interesting statistic:

45% of CEOs worry about losing their jobs due to disruptive forces they and their companies are dealing with.

Meanwhile, only 26% of the other C-suite executives think they’re going to be handed their walking papers.

While 44% of the CEOs think they are falling behind regarding the knowledge and skills to navigate current and future conditions, only 26% of their subordinates feel the same way.

A Dubious #1

On a recent edition of “Autoline After Hours” we asked Dan Hearsch, AlixPartners Global C-Leader of Automotive & Industrial, about what disruption means to automotive executives.

And know that of those 10 industries examined, for the second year in a row, Automotive is the most disrupted.

What are the things that are making nearly half of the top execs feel they may need to brush-up their resumes and do some additional reading on a variety of subjects?

“Put simply, the rate of change,” Hearsch said, adding, “We spent decades with fairly smooth, stable supply chains. And then COVID hit and upended everything.”

Predictability became a thing of the past.

But Wait, There’s More

In addition to which, Hearsch noted, there are the impacts of the tariffs (some actual; some proposed and then not implements; some found illegal) and the knock-on effects of the military conflicts (“Who knew,” he pointed out, that Ukraine is a major supplier of wiring harnesses for European OEMs and that the war in Iran has resulted in the about one third of the global supply of helium being taken off line, a gas important to the production of semiconductors?).

And there are, he pointed out, the rapid technology shifts facing OEMs and suppliers when it is electric vehicles and then not so many electric vehicles; autonomous vehicles, and then not so many autonomous vehicles. A lot of whipsawing.

Plans, Schmans. . .

In an industry that (like pretty much any industry or organization, if you think about it) that doesn’t like a massive lack of consistency, CEOs are in some cases feeling a bit off balance.

In a macro sense there is an “inability to plan and forecast and meet expectations.”

He asks, rhetorically, “How you plan a capital-intensive, long-term business like ours under those conditions?” And he adds, “But the markets don’t care.”

Let’s face it, the financial markets matter. So if you’re a CEO facing a series of tidal waves coming from all directions, you feel your days are numbered.

Oh. AI.

There is also the issue of artificial intelligence and its effect on the business.

Hearsch described automotive as “one of the most prominent industries that doesn’t view AI as something for revenue generation but for cost cutting.”

Hearsch said “AI not as something that helps us make revenue but cut costs. And you don’t cut costs if you don’t take headcount out. It’s about efficiency and efficiency is about speed or fewer heads, and usually both.”

That leads to a finding in the AlixPartners study that has implications well beyond the C-suite:

95% of automotive CEOs expect AI to lead to layoffs in the next five years.

What’s more, 44% expect there to be job eliminations of 10%.

Here’s a not-so-fun fact: the word decimate comes from the Latin decimare. Back in ancient Rome, if there was a military unit that wasn’t performing as expected, there was a decimation: one out of 10 soldiers was eliminated. And in this case, it doesn’t simply mean they lost their job.

So what we have is a situation where 44% of the CEOs surveyed think there will be a decimation of the number of employees. In five years.

Pick Your Disruptor

While AI may have that impact, there are other elements, too, that the AlixPartners study identifies as being things being faced by the auto industry, elements of disruption.

These include: changing customer behaviors; energy costs; advanced materials; software defined vehicles; inflation; new competition; and the aforementioned electrification, autonomy, and protectionism and tariffs.

When asked to identify the largest threats, the automotive executives responded:

· 44% protectionism and tariffs

· 40% geopolitical conflict

· 36% inflation

All of which are out of their control.

But Hearsch isn’t suggesting that any company or CEO start waving the white flag.

Rather, by improving efficiency, better understanding technology, addressing cultural issues (e.g., the “that’s the way we do things around here” mindset has long past its sell-by date), companies can be competitive.

And maybe more CEOs will keep their jobs.